Climate-nature scenario development for financial risk assessment: Invitation for Feedback on Scenario Development Framework  

February 21, 2024

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NatureFinance has partnered with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the University of Minnesota on a project to advance pioneering efforts to develop an integrated climate-nature scenario framework. As part of the project, we have prepared a report that presents the scenario narratives and modelling infrastructure developed.

We welcome feedback from key audiences on these integrated climate-nature scenario narratives and the modelling infrastructure. This feedback must be sent through the survey link at the bottom of the page by March 30th, 2024 as we finalise the project’s analysis and results for mid-2024.

About this report – an invitation for feedback 

The degradation of nature, including biodiversity loss, is a substantial threat not only to ecosystems and humanity, but also to the broader economy and financial stability. This is why financial stakeholders can benefit from scenarios that provide a comprehensive understanding of integrated climate- and nature-related economic and financial risks.  

This report presents initial and evolving efforts to develop integrated climate-nature scenario narratives and showcase their implications within modelling infrastructure that combines macroeconomic and biophysical models. It draws on a wide range of spatially variable biophysical and socio-economic information to derive indicators of both biophysical and transition risks. It focuses on deriving risks for the agricultural and land use sector for 2020-2050 globally. The current modelling infrastructure allows for the assessment of the degradation of two ecosystem services: pollination sufficiency and soil erosion.  

We acknowledge the assumptions and limitations of our initial work given the complexities associated with:  

  • Integrating climate and nature
  • Presenting the spectrum of dynamics and processes required for modelling
  • Assessing the impact of human activities on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and NCPs

The project’s objective is not to prescribe solutions but rather to contribute to the nascent and emerging research field of scenario development for the assessment of climate and nature-related economic and financial risks. Our forthcoming final report in mid-2024 will present a more comprehensive range of results and delve into their implications.

The overall project represents a pivotal initial step towards a more complete quantitative risk assessment framework which could feed into the work of financial institutions and other risk management and modelling experts. 

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Providing feedback and more information: 

For providing feedback: Please click here to complete our survey.   

For more information: Annia Costermani Visconti, Program Manager Nature Risk –

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